Its name is UNU and it’s a sort of artificial intelligence that works on a “hive mind” model. Its accuracy is startling. When asked to predict Oscar winners, it did so with 76% accuracy easily beating all critics. Last year it perfectly picked the first four of the Kentucky Derby, in order, winning a Superfecta with 540 to 1 odds. This week, in a publicly accessible Q&A session, it hinted at something quite frightening – new world conflicts.
What is UNU?
UNI is a “swarm intelligence” that links intelligence from groups of expert individuals in a real time system. Using complex algorithms and realtime calculations, it easily beats human intelligence, including every individual that is part of the hive. For instance, in UNU’s Kentucky Derby prediction, none of the individual participants got the prediction right on their own (in fact, none of the participants had more than one winning horse). Only as a “swarm” could they win.
As UNU developers explained:
“UNU doesn’t work like a poll or a survey that finds the average of the opinions in a group. Instead, it creates an artificial swarm that amplifies the group’s intelligence to create its own.”
The result is an intelligence that far exceeds the intelligence of the group.
UNU’s public political predictions
On June 1, 2016, UNU participated in a political hive, taking queries from the public regarding political questions they would like answered. UNU’s answers include definitive yes and no answers as well as flexible answers such as “possibly” (it calls it “maybe”). Potential answers also include “likely” (it terms “I believe”) and “unlikely” (termed “I doubt it”). In some instances, it even provided textual answers as well as percentage chances.
As people presented questions to UNU, the answers were calculated and posted on a public forum. In some cases, the answers were fairly obvious.
Voter turn out will be driven most by (1) support for a candidate or (2) dislike of a candidate? DISLIKE OF A CANDIDATE (with 100% certainty)
Who will win the LGBT bathroom debate in North Carolina: The US government or the state? THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
What are the most important issues for voters this election? JOBS AND ECONOMY
Did Bill Clinton inhale? YES
Some answers were exciting.
Will a manned Mars mission take place in the next three decades? YES
Will India and Pakistan engage in a Nuclear War within the next 10 years? NO
Some answers were surprising.
Who would more easily beat Trump, Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? SANDERS
Will Democrats take control of the house and senate? YES
Who will Donald Trump pick for Vice President? CHRIS CHRISTIE
What are the odds of campaign finance reform during the next presidency? 0%
Can jet fuel melt steel beams? YES (Surprisingly, this is indeed true)
What are the chances that Hillary Clinton faces legal charges for her use of a personal email account and server during her time as Secretary of State? HILARY WILL NOT FACE CHARGES FOR EMAIL
Whew, that’s a relief
Will North Korea start the next nuclear war? NO
What is the likelihood of a state seceding from the US over the next couple of decades? 0%
Many answers were quite interesting.
Will the Senate confirm Merrick Garland as a Supreme Court justice? YES
How much will a gallon of gasoline cost by the end of next year? $2.60
Should America continue support of NATO? YES
Will we see the vacant US supreme court seat filled before January 2017? NO
What are the chances that the United States ends the war on drugs by 2020? 0%
In a three-person race between Trump, Clinton, and Sanders, who would win? SANDERS 81%
Will the state of California fully legalize marijuana for recreational use this year? LIKELY
Do you see conservative or liberal trends in politics? LIBERAL
If Hilary is elected, will she impose more gun laws? YES
How similar would Trump be to Ronald Reagan if he won the presidency? NOT SIMILAR AT ALL
Some answers were disturbing.
Does Hilary Clinton support the voter or the corporations more? CORPORATIONS
Would a Trump presidency be respected internationally? UNLIKELY
Is Hilary Clinton crooked? YES
If Trump wins the presidency, is he likely to keep his campaign promises? UNLIKELY
Is Donald Trump smart or are Americans stupid? AMERICANS ARE STUPID
And some answers were quite scary.
Was 9/11 an inside job? UNLIKELY (disturbingly, the calculated answer was not “NO” indicating UNU could not rule out the possibility of a conspiracy)
Will the United States suffer a total financial collapse within the next twenty years? UNLIKELY (again, UNU could not rule out the possibility of a total financial collapse)
Has election fraud taken place during the 2016 Democratic National Convention (DNC) primary race? LIKELY
Will we see World War III within the next fifty years? MAYBE
Will a great power war erupt within the next fifteen years? YES